More than half of the fourth quarter of 2017, when car companies and battery companies are busy sprinting sales, an alarming news spread wildly – ​​the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be retreated in advance in 2018, and major adjustments will be made. . The car companies and battery companies that experienced the adjustment of the subsidy policy in 2016 are like a frightened bird. How subsidies are adjusted, where companies go, and the traditional peak season of the new energy industry is overshadowed by gloom.
The Battery China Network has carefully sorted out the current version of the various subsidy policies that are circulated on the Internet: from the middle or late October, it is reported that 2018 will retreat ahead of schedule in early 2018, and the rate of decline will be 20%; the rate of financial retreat will be circulated in early November. It will reach 40%; and then to the "outflow" of the Ministry of Finance on the contents of the subsidy policy review draft, a detailed division of new energy vehicle subsidies has been made. All indications are that although the subsidy policy adjustment plan has not yet been implemented, the adjustment of subsidies in 2018 has been firmly established.
Zhou Bo, director of the research division of the Power Battery Application Branch of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, believes that the adjustment of the subsidy policy is conducive to the improvement of the quality of new energy vehicle products and will help the related resources to move closer to leading enterprises and make the industry appear representative The enterprises, so that the normative improvement of the industry will help the new energy automotive industry bigger and stronger. However, it is undeniable that neither the technical parameters nor the financial subsidies will bring about a new round of “strong earthquakes†in the new energy auto industry in 2018.
From a macro perspective, in accordance with the National Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry, by the year 2020, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million units, and the specific energy of the power battery cells will reach 300 Wh/kg or more, striving to achieve 350 Wh/kg. The specific energy of the system strives to reach 260Wh/kg and the cost drops below 1 yuan/Wh. By 2025, new energy vehicles will account for more than 20% of automobile production and sales, and the power battery system will have a specific energy of 350 Wh/kg. Based on this, the specific energy of the system will vary from the current 120Wh/kg to 260Wh/kg in 2020, a difference of 140Wh/kg. In the next three years, it is expected to increase by more than 40Wh/kg per year. In other words, the annual national energy density adjustment limit will be around 40Wh/kg.
From the perspective of financial subsidies, according to the budget of the Ministry of Finance that is set to subsidize 30 billion yuan each year, as the number of new energy vehicles increases, the corresponding unit vehicle subsidies will certainly be reduced. From the current news circulating on the Internet, the national subsidy standard has gradually become more meticulous. From the current details of the flow, it is quite targeted.
Detail 1: What does the system energy density increase by 20Wh/kg instead of 40Wh/kg?
As mentioned above, if we want to achieve the national "long-term development plan for the automotive industry" requirements, then the future system energy density adjustment of new energy vehicles will be 40Wh/kg. Based on this calculation, the energy density of the pure electric passenger car system in 2018 needs to reach 160Wh/kg to obtain the state's 1.1 times subsidy; and from the review draft of the Ministry of Finance's 2018 subsidy, which is currently circulated by the Internet, the government has no relevant technology. The parameters are adjusted for eagerness and quick success, but the upward adjustment of 20Wh/kg, the new energy vehicle system energy density of 140Wh/kg, you can get 1.1 times the maximum subsidy. For pure electric buses, the current subsidy policy in 2017 will only give a 1.2-fold subsidy for a pure electric bus with an energy density of 115Wh/kg. According to projections for the 2018 adjustment, the limit is 155Wh/kg, which is currently considered by the Treasury’s 2018 subsidy. According to the manuscript, a pure electric bus with an energy density of 140 Wh/kg will receive a 1.2-fold subsidy.
Citing the Report on the Status Quo and Future Trends of China's New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Development in 2017 by the Research Institute of Power Battery Applications of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the 1-9 batch of “New Energy Vehicle Promotion Catalogue†for pure electric passenger vehicles (non- (Fast charging) and analysis data of system energy density of pure electric passenger cars. See below:
According to the Battery China Network, in terms of pure electric buses, the 1-9-batch New Energy Vehicle Promotion Catalogue has the highest energy density of the core system produced in the Ningde era, reaching 137.27Wh/kg; and in pure electric passenger vehicles, Lifan cars are equipped with a multi-composite lithium-ion battery pack that is powered by Miaosheng Power. The energy density of the system is 152.90Wh/kg. If the limit value is adjusted according to the requirements of the "Long-Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry", the impact on car companies will be enormous.
The development of new products by automobile enterprises requires going through the project-design-testing-verification-testing-announcement-listing. Such a long process means huge economic costs and time costs for car companies. With reference to fuel vehicles, it usually takes three to five years for car companies to develop a matured model. Once the model is marketed, it needs to reach the sales cycle of five years or the sales target of 100,000 units to recover the previous research and development costs. . From the perspective of the market, with the changes in subsidies, some models that are difficult to get subsidies will be forced out of the market; on the other hand, changes in subsidies will lead to changes in the market status of some competing vehicle models, and the difference in subsidies will cause auto companies to re-adjust His own production plan led to the early exit of some huge R&D models from the market. If the energy density of the vehicle system is set too high, it is highly likely that the auto companies will be busy with adjustments and there will be no car available for sale.
As far as the current domestic battery company's production level is concerned, the increase in system energy density by 20Wh/kg is a more consistent approach to the actual capacity of power battery companies. At present, the group efficiency of LiFePO4 batteries for pure electric buses is about 80%. In the future, according to the limit of group efficiency of 90%, the lithium iron phosphate batteries need to reach the limit energy density of 180Wh/kg to meet the system energy density of more than 155Wh. /kg subsidy limit; and in the pure electric passenger car, with a ternary material core package efficiency of 60% estimated, in order to meet the technical requirements of pure electric passenger car system energy density 160Wh/kg, then Monolithic cells have an energy density of at least 260 Wh/kg. (Group efficiency refers to the ratio of system energy density to monomer energy density. Affected by the shape of the battery, packaging technology, and PACK design, the battery grouping efficiency will be different, under the premise of guaranteeing PACK-related safety and product usability. The higher the grouping efficiency, the better the utilization rate of vehicle batteries.)
According to the battery China Network, the current domestic battery companies have a capacity of up to 150Wh/kg for the lithium iron phosphate square core, and the highest capacity of 145Wh/kg for the lithium iron phosphate cylinder core. Lithium iron soft package companies claim to be able to do more than 175Wh/kg, but it is understood that there is no actual example of assembly on the car; Sanyuan soft package has the highest production capacity of 220Wh/kg, three yuan cylindrical battery with the highest With a mass production capacity of 240Wh/kg, the ternary prismatic battery has a maximum production capacity of 200Wh/kg. The state adopts more modest means to increase the parameters of the energy density of the subsidy system, which is consistent with the current industry status and has higher feasibility.
Detail 2: The intention of controlling the national market for pure electric passenger cars
Although the subsidy retreat is a foregone conclusion, how the subsidy will be retired, when it will be retired, and how much it will be refunded will also be an important factor affecting the development of auto companies. Prior to this, the financial subsidies for cybernetics will directly reduce the slope by 40%. Today, judging from various signs, the possibility of a nationwide “one size fits all†is unlikely. Instead, it is highly likely that there will be targeted adjustments to subsidy policies.
In a certain sense, the 40% reduction is not shocking. Ouyang Minggao, executive vice president of the China Electric Vehicles Centennial Association and deputy director of the Academic Committee of Tsinghua University, once made the following judgment on China’s financial subsidy for the new energy auto industry. He believes that the government’s subsidy behavior is a demonstration of the government from 2010 to 2015. Financial subsidies are the “first driving forceâ€; and by 2014–2017 government subsidies and government purchases are the main drivers of new energy vehicle development; and from 2017 to 2020, new energy vehicles will transition from the market introduction period to maturity. The products are initially competitive in the market, and financial subsidies only play an auxiliary role in the development of the industry; and in 2019-2025, new energy vehicles will achieve greater development under the dual drive of the “double-credit†management approach and the market, with financial subsidies. Complete exit after completing the transitional guidance. In the transitional period of 2018, which is supported by the introduction of financial subsidies, combined with the development trend of the industry, it is highly likely that financial assistance will be given with some emphasis. As for the current trend of national policy control, it will focus on supporting long-haul mileage models, while models with lower driving mileage may experience subsidized cliffs.
According to the network subsidy policy, in the case of pure electric passenger vehicles, the subsidy for 2018 will be based on the current driving range of new energy vehicles, and at the same time, the national supplement will be reduced for the lowest driving range models. 50%, to make up for 50% of cliff-style adjustment. For high-mileage mileage models, detailed adjustments are also made, and adjustments are relatively moderate. Theoretically, the development of high-continent mileage vehicles is encouraged.
Although the debate on the development path of China's new energy vehicles is not uniform, but from the current state to achieve "auto power", the attitude of overtaking the curve point of view, high mileage vehicles continue to be the focus of the future development of new energy vehicles. The current subsidy policy does not meet the national expectations. The most representative one is that the new energy auto market is tilting toward the “low-end marketâ€. The weak market demand for high-end new energy vehicles has caused car companies to adjust their production directions one after another, positioning the future production focus on small vehicles under 100,000 yuan. This situation is something that the country does not want to see.
The guiding policy is trying to find a balance between the market and the future development of new energy vehicles. At present, new energy vehicles are still in the popularization stage, and consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles is not high. The era of the buyer's market in China's auto market has come. In addition, new energy vehicles have not yet formed a competitive advantage with traditional fuel vehicles. It is also reasonable that the high-end pure electric vehicle market is cold.
The sub-subsidy price of a micro-mini pure electric vehicle with a price of less than 100,000 yuan is basically the same as the price of a fuel vehicle of the same grade. In the first-tier cities like Kitsuketsuto, the number plates are tense and traffic restrictions are numerous. Micro-mini electric vehicles have less investment and are favored by consumers. The subsidized prices of medium and high-grade new energy passenger vehicles are generally higher than those of similar fuel vehicles. , Relatively low cost performance, relatively small market demand. However, it is worth noting that at present, there are a large number of micro-mini pure electric vehicles manufacturing companies in China, which have mixed fisheries, and the quality of vehicles is uneven. This has also caused a large impact on the ecology of the new energy automotive industry.
The country’s implementation of cliff-type slope retreat for subsidies on small vehicles with low driving range will force companies to increase the production process of vehicles and reduce vehicle production costs; at the same time, it will stimulate competition among car companies and will allow some enterprises to withdraw early. It plays an important role in improving the overall ecology of the industry. Subsidies for new energy vehicles with high cruising range are also conducive to medium-to-high-end new energy passenger cars and micro-mini passenger cars that are closer in price. For power battery companies, the subsidy fall will directly affect the purchase prices of power batteries for car companies. Power battery companies will urgently need to reduce production costs. Looking at the profitability of upstream companies in the power battery industry this year, the gross profit margin of these companies is generally high, and in 2018, the overall cost reduction of the industry is bound to shift upstream. On the other hand, with the adjustment of the car enterprise ecosystem, the battery company's ecosystem will also face changes. Some low-end production capacity is in urgent need of conversion, and it is highly likely that a large number of production capacity will be eliminated.
Instruction Manual
1. Features
Clock display, 10 sets of adjustable timed power control, randomized power control, manual switch and optional DST setup.
2. First time charging
This timer contains a rechargeable battery. It is normal that the new/old model runs out of battery if it wasn`t being charged for a long period of time. In this case, the screen will not turn on.
To charge : simply plug the timer to a power outlet. The charging time should take at least 15 minutes.
If the screen doesn`t light up or displays garbled characters, simply reboot the system by pressing the [RESET" button.
3. Set clock
Hold [CLOCK" button and [WEEK" button to adjust week.
Hold [CLOCK" button and [HOUR" button to adjust hour.
Hold [CLOCK" button and [MINUTE" button to adjust minute.
Hold [CLOCK" button and [TIMER" button to select 12 hour/24 hour display.
Hold [CLOCK" button and [ON/AUTO/OFF" button to enable/disable DST (daylight-saving-time).
4. Set timer
Press [TIMER" button, select and set timer. Setting rotation : 1on, 1off, 2on, 2off, ...... , 10on, 10off.
Press [HOUR" button to set hour for timer.
Press [MIN" button to set minute for timer.
Press [WEEK" button to set weekday for timer. Multiple weekdays can be selected. ex: if selected [MO", the timer will only apply on every Monday; if selected [ MO, WE, FR", the timer will apply on every Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Press [RES/RCL" button to cancel the selected on or off timer. The screen will show "-- -- : -- --" , the timer is canceled.
Press [RES/RCL" button again to reactivate the timer.
When timers are set, press [CLOCK" to quit timer setting and return to clock.
5. Random function
Press [RANDOM" button to activate random function, press again to cancel function.
System only runs random function when [AUTO" is on.
Random function will automatically start the timer from 2 to 32 minutes after the setting.
ex : if timer 1on was set to 19:30 with the random function on, the timer will activate randomly between 19:33 to 20:03.
if timer 1off was set to 23:00 with the random function on, the timer will activate randomly between 23:02 to 23:32.
To avoid overlapping, make sure to leave a minimum of 31 minutes gap between different sets of timer.
6. Manual control
Displayed features:
ON : socket turns on.
OFF : socket turns off.
AUTO : socket turns on/off automatically via timer.
Manual ON setting
Press [ON/AUTO/OFF" button to switch from [AUTO" to [ON".
This mode allows socket of the device to power up. Power indicator will light up.
Manual OFF setting
Press [ON/AUTO/OFF" button to switch from [AUTO" to [OFF".
This mode turns socket of the device off. Power indicators will turn off.
7. Electrical parameters
Operating voltage : 230VAC
Battery : NiMh 1.2V
Power consumption : < 0.9W
Response time : 1 minute
Power output : 230VAC/16A/3680W
Q&A
Q: Why won`t my timer turn on?
A: It`s out of battery, you can charge the timer by plugging onto any power outlet. Charge the device for at least 15 minutes. Then press [RESET " button to reset the device.
Q: Can I set seconds of the timer?
A: No, the smallest time unit is minute.
Q: Does my timer keeps old settings without being plugged onto a power outlet?
A: Yes, the timer has an internal battery, it allows the timer to save settings without a power outlet.
Q: Is the battery rechargeable?
A: Yes, the battery is rechargeable. We recommend to charge it for 4 hours so the battery is fully charged.
Q: Does the timer needs internet connection?
A: The timer does not need internet.
Q: Does the screen have back light function?
A: It doesn`t support back light.
Digital Timer Socket, Timing Switch Socket, Electronic Timer Socket, Timer Socket
NINGBO COWELL ELECTRONICS & TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD , https://www.cowellsockets.com