Recently, the Ningde era, the supplier of power battery systems, disclosed the prospectus for the first time, causing concern in the industry. This is the largest IPO financing case among non-state-owned enterprises. It not only injects a new force into China's new energy automotive industry, but also will have a certain impact on the world's power battery competition landscape.
Power Battery Reshuffling: Stronger, Stronger, Quality, and Smart
The industry believes that as the core component of new energy vehicles, the development of power batteries and new energy vehicles are all glorious. Chinese car companies took advantage of the new energy automotive industry to overtake the curve and lead the battery. However, the power battery industry is currently mixed. Due to the heavy demand and subsidy of market demand, a large number of inefficient and backward production capacity are flooded with them. With the subsidy for new energy vehicles gradually declining, cost pressures are gradually shifting toward power batteries. Once subsidies are eliminated, most players lacking core technologies will eventually be eliminated.
Ningde Times VS BYD: Entering 100 Billion Level
The Ningde era is currently in a quiet period before listing. According to the Ningde Times prospectus, in 2014, 2015, 2016 and January-June 2017, the sales revenue of the company's power battery system was 715 million yuan and 4.98 billion yuan respectively. 13.98 billion yuan and 5.34 billion yuan, accounting for 94.17%, 87.98%, 95.55%, and 87.14% of the main business income, respectively. According to market predictions, Ningde Times expects the issue price to be around RMB 60/share, its valuation has exceeded RMB 130 billion, and the current market value of BYD is approximately RMB 190 billion. These two companies have taken the lead in China’s power battery market. After the energy vehicles, the powerhouses are consistently strong and have entered the market value of 100 billion yuan.
According to information released by the agency, Ningde Times Power Battery Co., Ltd. ranked the top three in the world's power battery companies in 2016, and the second in the country. In the first half of 2017, sales exceeded BYD, ranking first in China and second in the world.
Recently, Guo Weinan, project manager of BYD Power Battery Factory, introduced the planning of the future enterprise's power battery and stated that he must innovate in terms of raw materials and safety. He said: “We will stick to the two lines of lithium-hydrogen phosphate battery and ternary lithium battery for a long time. In terms of battery module development, we are striving to standardize design and achieve standardization while achieving light weight. The entire battery system will do a lot of work to ensure the safety of the system and improve the reliability of the system."
Industry insiders believe that with the subsidy of new energy vehicles gradually declining, cost pressures will gradually shift to power batteries. As the cost of power batteries has remained high, electric vehicles will not be able to compete with traditional cars if they rely on policy subsidies for a long time. Once the subsidy is cancelled, it will be a huge test for the enterprise. Therefore, all the major power battery manufacturers in the world have made the reduction of battery cost a primary goal.
According to data data, the current domestic power battery price is around 1.6 yuan/Wh, and to achieve the oil level price, the price must drop to about 1 yuan/Wh. At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive Power Battery Industry," and proposed the goal of reducing the cost of power batteries to 1 yuan/Wh by 2020.
The fierce differentiation of market competition, quality intelligence is king
According to industry sources, low-end production capacity and high-end production capacity are currently problems faced by the power battery industry. The industry is also faced with a quality revolution. It is created from China to China, and it is urgently needed to solve the problem from scratch. change.
It is understood that Lithium-ion batteries in power batteries as a new green energy product gradually replace traditional batteries such as lead-acid batteries. Compared with traditional batteries, lithium-ion batteries have the advantages of high energy density, high operating voltage, light weight, small size, low self-discharge, no memory effect, long cycle life, rapid charging, etc. At the same time, due to lack of lead, cadmium and other heavy metals , No pollution, no toxic materials, known as green new energy products. In recent years, lithium-ion batteries have been widely used in consumer electronics (mobile phones, laptops and other electronic digital products), new energy vehicles, and energy storage. Some agencies expect that the demand for lithium batteries for electric cars worldwide will exceed 340GWh by 2022, which is 7 times of 2016.
The above-mentioned industry figures predict that in the field of power batteries in 2018, the competition among leading enterprises will become more intense. If raw material prices rise, manufacturers will face greater cost pressures, and price war competition may continue to be competitive. Equipment companies also urgently need to step out of the dilemma of small market size, unstable equipment performance and long payback period. Therefore, he believes that "Quality-creation will become the main theme for the development of lithium-ion new energy industry in the coming years."
As a high-end subdivision manufacturing industry with long-term and rapid growth in industrial added value, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology attaches great importance to intelligent battery manufacturing. On October 16, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the 2017 Smart Manufacturing Pilot Demonstration Project List. Among them, the new energy vehicle power battery and lithium titanate battery digitization workshop of seven companies including Northern Ao Titanium, Fuengeng Technology, Miaosheng Power, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Yinlong New Energy, BAK Battery and Qinghai Times New Energy, etc. Lithium titanate materials and other smart manufacturing pilot demonstration projects were nominated. According to industry insiders, with the increasing demand for high-performance, high-quality, and cost-effective power batteries in the consumer market, improving the smart manufacturing level of power batteries has become the key to the development of China's power batteries.
Fuel truck ban sales trend, power battery usher in new opportunities
The industry believes that with the gradual national policy, benefit from the improvement of lithium battery production technology, the cost reduction, the increased popularity of new energy vehicles and supporting facilities, etc., the demand for new energy vehicles will continue to grow in the next three years.
The industry believes that under the "market and policy" two-wheel drive, the implementation of the "double-integration" policy, the ban on the sale of fuel trucks on the agenda, the charging piles and the configuration of power resources and other infrastructure have been continuously improved, and the power battery energy density has increased. The cost reduction will greatly enhance the market competitiveness of the battery industry chain.
For example, in the field of lithium battery materials, with the growth of new energy vehicles and lithium battery energy storage markets in the future, lithium battery recycling and lithium battery material processing and manufacturing operations have a huge market space. At present, the battery recycling industry specification is still in its infancy, and power batteries have not entered the payback period on a large scale. In the future, with the continuous expansion of the power battery market, the amount of scrapped batteries will increase rapidly. The rapid growth of the power battery market from 2014 to 2015 is expected to gradually enter the payback period after 2018, which will drive the development of the battery recycling industry.
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