New energy sources with continuous decline in wind power costs

In general, there are many key parameters to measure the economics of wind power, including investment costs, operation and maintenance costs, electricity production, average wind speed, wind turbine life, discount rate, and so on. Recently, the Hydropower and Water Resources Planning and Design Center and the National Renewable Energy Information Management Center released the "2013 Annual Statistical Report on Wind Power Construction in China", showing that the price of wind farms in China is declining year by year. The 2012 final account unit price is 7958 yuan/kW, which is lower than 8,000 yuan / kilowatt mark.

For wind power generation, the highest proportion of investment costs is fixed cost, which accounts for about 80% of the total cost of the project over its entire life cycle. In Europe, for each 2MW wind turbine installed, the fixed investment accounts for more than 75% of the entire wind turbine, and the evaluation share of operation and maintenance costs does not exceed 25% of the total cost of the entire wind turbine lifecycle. According to the "Report", the current proportion of engineering winds in China's wind farms has reached a maximum of 78.41%, which is basically the same as the cost of wind farms in Europe.

The high fixed cost is a fundamental difference between wind power generation and traditional power production because the constant fluctuations and uncertain fuel costs constitute a key component of the cost of traditional electricity production. However, in the electricity market, the cost of fuel for wind power generation is zero, and the marginal cost is very low, which not only reduces the uncertainty and risk of wind power supply, but also helps reduce the overall power price by replacing the most expensive power generation energy. At present, the continuous decline in the cost of Chinese wind farms will inevitably increase the market competitiveness of wind power generation and help promote the replacement of traditional power such as thermal power generation.

At the same time, the simple cost analysis does not take into account the externalities of wind power, that is, the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions. According to estimates from EU-funded assessment projects, if the external costs in the form of damage to the environment and health are considered, the cost of electricity for coal and oil production will double, and the cost of electricity for natural gas will increase by 30%. Under the background of the continuous development of the carbon market and carbon finance, once carbon trading becomes a tool for environmental protection and industrial upgrading, the environment cost will be levied based on the environmental impact of electricity production. Wind power does not need to pay for the cost of environmental costs. It will be more apparent.

Wind power generation technology has been continuously developed in recent years; if the cost of wind power is taken into consideration, the cost of wind power generation is no higher than the current cost of conventional energy generation, if coupled with the expected volatility and scarcity of conventional energy prices. As prices continue to rise, in the long run, the cost of wind power generation will continue to decline, becoming a reasonable compensation for the price premiums of oil, coal and natural gas.