Population aging + chronic disease is high + medical resources are unevenly distributed, and medical artificial intelligence is in great demand
Medical artificial intelligence is the fundamental way to solve medical productivity. In China, the aging of the population, the rapid growth of chronic diseases, the serious imbalance between the supply and demand of medical resources, and the uneven geographical distribution have created a huge demand for medical artificial intelligence. At the same time, China has a large population base, rich industrial portfolio, and sufficient talent reserves. It also provides a good foundation for the development of artificial intelligence.
Chart 1: Demographics of the domestic population and the age of 60 and above in 2010-2017 (unit: 10,000, %)
On the other hand, in recent years, more than 80 national policies issued by the state and a number of special policies for medical artificial intelligence have shown that the development of medical artificial intelligence has welcomed favorable policies. Therefore, China has become the world's leading AI R&D center, and the development of medical artificial intelligence in China is facing very good opportunities.
Figure 2: Relevant policies for medical artificial intelligence as of 2017
Lack of quality medical resources, artificial intelligence + medical health change the future
The most prominent problem in the medical field is the lack of quality medical resources. At the same time, doctors have a lot of room for improvement in the accuracy and efficiency of disease diagnosis. For a long time, the demand for doctors has increased in most countries and regions, especially after entering an aging society. To solve the problem of insufficient doctor resources, there is no other way than to increase the supply. However, doctors need a period of training, and the supply cannot be increased indefinitely. So people began to hope for the machine. Because once the machine can be treated, the supply will increase indefinitely. Therefore, the combination of artificial intelligence and medical health is the most important one in many application scenarios of artificial intelligence.
Figure 3: The development of medical artificial intelligence (artificial network nerve as an example)
Computational algorithm is complete, artificial intelligence + medical waiting for medical big data detonation
Algorithms, computational power and data are the three elements of rapid development of artificial intelligence. Computational power is one of the infrastructures of artificial intelligence, and the current computational cost per GFLOPS has fallen to 8 cents. Algorithms are the basis for the development of artificial intelligence. Most of the algorithms such as Caffe, TensorFlow, and Torch have realized open source and become the choice of most engineers. They have played a very important role in the accelerated development of the industry and the cultivation of talents. In terms of data, artificial intelligence systems must “train†themselves with a large amount of data in order to continuously improve the quality of the output. At present, medical data is also characterized by low openness, difficulty in obtaining and cleaning.
Figure 4: Three elements of medical artificial intelligence
Over the past decade, with the implementation of electronic medical records, digital laboratory slides, high-resolution radiographic images, video, and healthcare data have grown exponentially, and the amount of data in the entire medical industry is incredible. Together with the archives of pharmaceutical companies and academic research institutions, and trillions of data streams are available from sensors in wearable devices. According to a report released by EMC and IDC, the global health care data volume in 2013 was 153 EB, which is expected to grow at an annual rate of 48%. This means that by 2020, this number will reach 2,314 EB.
Exhibit 5: Number and Forecast of Global Medical Big Data 2013-2020 (Unit: EB)
Figure 6: Medical data characteristics
Rich applications, artificial intelligence and many areas of the medical industry spark
In the medical and health industry, the application scenarios of artificial intelligence are becoming more and more abundant, and artificial intelligence technology has gradually become an important factor affecting the development of the medical industry and improving the level of medical services. Different from the application of Internet technology in the medical industry, the transformation of artificial intelligence into the medical industry includes the improvement of productivity, the change of production mode, the driving of the underlying technology, and the enrichment of the upper application. There are many ways to combine artificial intelligence and medical treatment. The medical treatment process includes pre-consultation, mid-diagnosis and post-diagnosis; applicable subjects include hospitals, doctors, pharmaceutical companies, inspection institutions, etc.; in the perspective of enabling the medical industry, including reducing medical costs. , to improve diagnostic efficiency and other modes. The application scenarios focused on medical artificial intelligence enterprises in China are concentrated in the fields of virtual assistants, case and literature analysis, medical image assisted diagnosis, drug development, and gene sequencing.
Figure 7: Main application scenarios of medical artificial intelligence
There are endless generations of startups, and there are 139 domestic medical artificial intelligence related companies.
According to statistics from the Prospective Industry Research Institute, there are currently 139 domestic medical artificial intelligence related companies, mainly in Beijing, Guangzhou and the Yangtze River Delta. From the perspective of time, domestic medical artificial intelligence enterprises have seen a peak of growth since 2014. Although they are relatively late in development compared with foreign countries, the growth in the past three years is very rapid, and startup companies are emerging one after another.
Figure 8: Number of establishments of medical artificial intelligence in China from 1998 to 2016 (unit: unit)
From the perspective of the big industry chain, we can see that the entire industry chain can be divided into three levels: the basic layer, the technical layer and the application layer. Because the basic algorithms and computing platforms, massive data sources, and the basic technologies of machine learning and image recognition have higher barriers, they often require longer-term high investment to have high returns. Therefore, technology giants tend to favor the bottom layer, and startup companies. It is often chosen to be in the application layer of auxiliary diagnosis, health management and drug development with strong liquidity and easy access.
Figure 9: Medical Artificial Intelligence Industry Chain
The potential of medical artificial intelligence is extraordinary, and the market size is expected to reach 20 billion in 2018.
The combination of artificial intelligence and medical care has extraordinary potential for development and imagination, and is one of the investment hotspots in the next 5-10 years. According to the Prospective Industry Research Institute's "Analysis of China's Artificial Intelligence Industry Market Prospects and Investment Strategic Planning in 2018-2023": In 2016, the scale of China's artificial intelligence + medical market reached 9.661 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 37.9%, China Artificial Intelligence + The scale of the medical market continues to grow. It will exceed 13 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 40.7%. It is expected that the market size will reach 20 billion yuan in 2018.
Chart 10: China's artificial intelligence + medical market scale growth trend chart in 2015-2018 (unit: 100 million yuan)
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