The concept of 8K TV is very hot, and some people even call 2018 the first year of 8K TV, but as of now, only Sharp is still selling 8K TVs, and the 8K TV market is not progressing as fast as expected. At the just-concluded 2018 Berlin International Consumer Electronics Show (IFA2018), 8K TVs were far less popular than 4K OLED TVs. Except for Samsung and TCL, most TV manufacturers exhibited 4K OLED TVs; There are only five or six 8K TV manufacturers, and the only manufacturers that can really bring 8K TVs to the market this year may be Samsung, Sony and Sharp. The popularity of the 8K TV concept is difficult to cover up the "coldness" of the 8K TV market. Why is the 8K TV so loud and rainy?
8K TV industry ecological chain is immature
TVs are always developing in the direction of larger size and high resolution. With the increasing popularity of 4K TVs, large-size 8K TVs are becoming the next hot spot for TV manufacturers. IHS Markit expects 8K to account for 1% of the panel market in 60-inch and larger sizes in 2018 and 9% in 2020. However, the development speed of 8K TV seems to be slower than expected by the industry, largely because it is constrained by the immaturity of the 8K TV industry ecological chain.
The 8K industry chain is very long, including chips, display panels, shooting equipment, content, storage, network transmission, codec, etc. Any one of these links may be left behind by 8K TVs. Bian Zheng, an analyst at Allview Cloud, pointed out that the improvement of TV product specifications is often driven by panel manufacturers first, and then accelerates the development of other links in the industry chain. At present, except for the 8K screen, the development speed of other links in the 8K industry chain is relatively slow.
Due to the fierce competition in the 4K LCD panel market, the price has been at a low point in the first half of this year, and panel manufacturers hope to launch 8K LCD panels as soon as possible to obtain a certain profit margin. It is understood that at present, Sharp, Innolux, Samsung, and AUO have begun to produce 8K LCD panels in small batches. BOE has already sent samples of 65-inch and 75-inch 8K LCD panels. It is expected that BOE will officially provide 8K LCD panels to TV manufacturers next year. CSOT is also advancing 8K LCD panel technology non-stop.
However, the pixel density of 8K LCD panels is four times that of 4K, and there are challenges in the process of array, exposure, etc., and it is more difficult to mass-produce 8K LCD panels. At present, the 8K panel production yield of panel manufacturers is still in the climbing stage, and the production capacity is not very large.
T-Cons, driver ICs, SoCs, etc., which are closely related to 8K LCD panels, are even more immature. Due to the higher pixel density of 8K LCD panels, stronger driving capabilities are required, and higher requirements are placed on the processing capabilities of the driver ICs and related algorithms. However, T-Con, driver IC, and SoC have not been mass-produced yet, which restricts the development speed of 8K. Samsung's 8K TV solutions are relatively complete, mainly benefiting from the layout of Samsung's entire industry chain, which can quickly promote the development of all aspects of the 8K TV supply chain such as driver ICs.
At the same time, HDMI audio and video interfaces and network transmission conditions are also restricting the development progress of 8K TVs. At present, HDMI2.0 only supports up to 60Hz 4K content transmission, and HDMI2.1 can only support 60Hz 8K content transmission, but HDMI2.1 is not yet mature. In order to launch 8K TVs as soon as possible last year, Sharp adopted a 4-way HDMI 2.0 cable solution. This solution seems to be not so mature for 8K TV products. Currently, there is no interface technology that supports 120Hz 8K content transmission, and corresponding new technologies may need to be developed in the future. The maturity of the network transmission environment is crucial for the future development of 8K TVs. Currently, the industry expects 5G to bring technological breakthroughs to 8K content network transmission. However, 5G will not be commercialized until next year, and it will take some time to truly enter the large-scale civilian stage.
The development of codec technology can reduce the requirements for the network environment. In order to realize the transmission of 8K information, a more efficient compression technology is required. Compared with H.264, the compression efficiency of H.265 is improved by more than 50%, which can further reduce the transmission bandwidth of 8K. However, at present, the hardware development of H.265 mainly focuses on 4K, and there are not many development of 8K hardware.
In addition, the lack of 8K content has been criticized. At present, 8K content is more difficult to produce than 4K, and 8K content is even rarer when 4K content is not very much. Moreover, the threshold for 8K equipment is higher. Zhang Bing, director of consumer electronics research at IHS China, pointed out that an 8K camera lens costs more than 2 million US dollars, and usually a live sports broadcast requires more than 20 lenses.
The 8K TV supply chain is immature, and the price gap between 8K TVs and 4K TVs is large. TV manufacturers face pricing and cost pressures when promoting the commercialization of 8K TVs. Most TV manufacturers still keep 8K TVs in the strategic layout stage.
Most TV makers are underpowered
In addition to being constrained by the immaturity of the 8K industry chain, most TV manufacturers are conservative towards 8K TVs and slow down the development of 8K TVs.
8K applications only make sense on super-sized TV panels, that is, 8K is inherently associated with sizes 60 inches and above. On the one hand, 8K TVs are destined to belong to high-end TVs, and on the other hand, it also limits the market space of 8K TVs. At present, the market share of TVs with sizes of 60 inches and above is limited, and they cannot be released as quickly as 4K, which has a lower size threshold.
Now the TV market is mainly divided into two technical camps, one is the OLED TV camp, and the other is the QLED TV camp. In recent years, the number of manufacturers in the OLED TV camp has increased. At present, there are nearly 15 mainstream brand members in the world. This year, even Hisense, which has been supporting QLED, has joined the OLED TV camp. The QLED TV camp members mainly include Samsung, TCL and Hisense. In recent years, the members of the QLED TV camp have not changed much.
OLED TVs and QLED TVs have been competing in the ultra-high-end market without stopping. Since Sony joined the OLED TV camp, the morale of the OLED TV market has been greatly improved, accelerating the development of OLED TVs, allowing OLED TVs to gain a firm foothold in the ultra-high-end market. 8K TVs were initially positioned in the ultra-high-end market, which would conflict with the price positioning of OLED TVs. During the rapid development of 4K OLED TVs, members of the OLED TV camp are not in a hurry to launch 8K LCD TVs and 8K OLED TVs. DISCIEN analyst Yi Xianjing revealed that Hisense may launch a 75-inch 8K TV next year, and Sony may launch an 8K TV in the fourth quarter of this year.
But the QLED TV camp is different. In the first half of this year, the QLED TV market fell short of expectations and declined for the first time in the Chinese market. According to CMM data, in the first half of 2018, the sales volume of quantum dot TVs in the Chinese market was 160,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and sales decreased by 20%. IHS Markit even pointed out recently that global OLED TV sales will surpass QLED TV sales this year. QLED TVs seem to have been unable to take on the heavy responsibility of ultra-high-end TVs. Members of the QLED TV camp, especially Samsung, urgently need to launch 8K TVs to make up for the shortfall in the ultra-high-end TV market. It is understood that in October this year, Samsung 8K TVs are likely to go on sale in the Chinese market.
At the same time, Samsung is also improving QLED technology, hoping to use the new technology to regain its advantages in the high-end market. It is understood that Samsung Display has developed QD on Glass technology, which can make QLED TVs thinner and lighter, which is conducive to improving the appearance design of QLED. TCL also exhibited a new QLED TV (QD on Glass) at IFA2018, which is likely to be launched next year.
Sharp, who does not stand in line, is the most attentive on 8K TVs. The world's first 70-inch 8K TV was launched last year, and this year, a 65-inch 8K TV and an 80-inch 8K TV were exhibited. Sharp's Gen 10 line was the first to mass-produce, and at the same time, Innolux has panel resources. Foxconn has the advantage of large-size 8K panels. Foxconn hopes to take advantage of Sharp's brand advantages and Foxconn's vertical integration advantages to digest upstream large-size panel resources. At the same time, strategically, Foxconn hopes to lead the development of the 8K TV market. Even when the 8K TV industry chain is not very mature, Sharp dares to launch 8K series products first.
The ecological maturity of 8K is very low, and the difficulty is greater than that of 4K. Moreover, the size of 8K TV is more than 60 inches, and the cost is still high. The development speed of 8K TV will be slower than that of 4K. Most manufacturers hold a conservative attitude towards 8K TVs, so the development of the 8K TV market is relatively slow.
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