The green poplar is light and cold, and the red apricot branches are spring. Spring has arrived, my friend, I haven't seen you for a long time! At this time, you may be faltering for survival, or perhaps for the sake of meager profit, or perhaps racking your brains for the listing. It’s a tough day, and the spring breeze is worth it! Faced with the opportunities and challenges of the next three years, it’s inevitable that you will get lost. I hope someone can point to the maze and see the clouds.
High-tech LED gives you such an opportunity. The 2016 Gaogong LED Spring Festival will be held in Shenzhen Qingqing World on the afternoon of March 20th (Sunday) with the theme of “Reinvigorating and Re-startingâ€. The heads of well-known enterprises in the upper, middle and lower reaches jointly discussed the trend of the 2016 LED industry. At that time, Gaogong Feige will analyze and forecast the LED industry in 2016.
Nothing to worry about, just talk about the industry. From chip to package, from accessories to equipment, from accessories to applications, the Spring Festival guests covered the entire supply chain of the LED industry. The key guests include Hongli Optoelectronics, Guoxing Optoelectronics, Mingwei Electronics, Jingtai Shares, Jingke Electronics, Tengsheng Industry, Rare Earth, Moso Power, Igor, Emerald, and Keheng. people.
Zhao Yutao, chairman of Hyun Shuo Optoelectronics once said, “For domestic LED companies, if 2015 is awkward, then 2016 is a support.†This statement has been recognized by many colleagues in the industry. After the winter of 2015, it has not been warm since the spring of 2016. When there is no high profit, that is the beginning of integration. In 2016, the integration tide is intensified.
As a new type of industry supported by the state, LED is naturally a hot spot in the two conferences. "Zombie companies clearing the market" was proposed as a key issue. Zhu Xiaodan, deputy to the Guangdong Provincial People's Congress, said that zombie enterprises can not only create social value, but also waste a lot of social resources. Their products and quality are worrying, and they will bring the danger of overcapacity in the industry.
This, especially in the LED industry, is particularly evident. For such enterprises, they must completely withdraw from the market through reorganization, bankruptcy, etc., effectively solving the problem of overcapacity. Guangdong Province will establish a database of state-owned and non-state-owned “zombie enterprisesâ€, and in 2018, the “zombie enterprise†market will be cleared. It is estimated that only 10% of LED companies will be left behind.
On the chip side, according to the research of high-tech LED, in 2016, several major chip factories in China will continue to expand production, and the price of chips still has a downward space. The chip industry is generally optimistic. Hua Ai Optoelectronics, Secretary-General Ye Aimin said, “In 2016, there will be enterprises continually withdrawing, and market demand will continue to increase steadily, and the industry will pick up. But when this time comes, it is necessary to look at the development of the market.â€
However, the price of chips in 2015 has fallen by nearly 30%. Li Shengfa, a senior analyst at GGII, believes that the price of chips in 2016 will still drop by about 15%. As the production capacity of several major chip manufacturers in China continues to expand, the scale advantage is becoming more and more obvious. If the "price butcher knife" is sacrificed, the price of the chip may fall even more.
At the package end, if it is said that expansion, the performance of the packaging company is particularly obvious. A number of listed companies, including Mulinsen (002745.SZ), Hongli Optoelectronics (300219.SZ) and Zhaochi (002429.SZ), have expanded their production plans. Among them, Mulinsen expects that the output value will reach 6000kk/month in 2016, and Hongli Optoelectronics has more than 1000kk/month capacity plan in Nanchang Guanggu.
According to Ren Longzheng, director of sunshine sales, in 2016, the expansion of the packaging giants is expanding, leaving little opportunities for small and medium-sized packaging companies. In addition to pursuing the advantages of scale, everyone will not have much action. The High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GGII) estimates that China's packaging scale will reach 73.4 billion yuan in 2016, and the phenomenon of the larger Evergrande will become more apparent.
At the application end, Philips, the lighting giant at the beginning of the year, set an ultra-low target of “2016 LED bulbs ex-factory price dropped to 0.8 US dollarsâ€, a drop of more than 20%, and the industry suddenly lost. And a number of domestic LED lighting factories have also shouted the first quarter to achieve the "ex-factory price of 0.8 US dollars" goal, which also indicates that the price reduction of the upper and middle reaches of the product has become a nailing trend.
“ Looking forward to 2016, the price of LED lighting products will continue to fall. In 2016, the LED price/performance ratio (lm/$) will increase by at least 30%. If the relevant industry can't continue the technology upgrade, they can only go down the price, and the success or failure depends on the ability. "Minlinson executive general manager Lin Jiliang said. In 2016, LED lighting shipments will increase by 30-40%, and the output value will increase by about 10%.
Prices have fallen, integration has intensified, and the living environment of SMEs may be even more difficult. Large enterprises will fight for scale, and the industry pattern of small enterprises will be more obvious. However, the rise of plant lighting, special lighting, health lighting, and smart lighting has also brought more development opportunities to everyone. For more detailed market analysis, 2016 Gaogong Chunyi will give you the answer you want.
Note: This high-tech LED spring will be an invitation system with limited seats.
Please call: Xie Peng 13631225525
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